Latest ZRA observation within contract
Public early warning
Zambia Power Stress Index
A public signal for short-horizon power stress in Zambia.
Tracking Kariba hydrology, load-shedding evidence, and macro pressure so the state of the grid is legible at a glance.
System health degradedHydrology within contractLabel evidence pendingModel layer live
Queue clear
Latest inference live signal
Most recent published dashboard update
1 of 9 rail degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (8 days behind).
Use it for: short-horizon early warning over days to weeks, not seasonal prediction. Update rhythm: source ingest runs daily where connected; the PSI refreshes when a governed inference run is published. Scope today: Stage 1 PSI monitoring is live and publishing; macro data rails are live for context, while the macro model remains gated until it beats baseline. Full methodology
Read the methodologyLive where upstream data is current and a governed PSI publication is available.
40.44%
Kariba usable storage
Latest ZRA observation is 40.44% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
80
Evidence base
0 candidate signals queued for severity classification.
Stable
FX pressure signal
Stable means the BoZ mid rate moved +0.03% versus the previous observation, inside the -2% to +3% neutral band. Latest BoZ business-day observation is inside the rail contract.
Experimental(MEDIUM)
Model readiness
Latest published PSI reading is current and suitable for operational monitoring.
Data adequacy
Coverage snapshot for the latest published training run.
Aligned rows65
Overlap dates65
Missingness (mean / max)5% / 22%
Quality gatesMet
Under-threshold override—
What to know before using this signal
- Daily severity — Each day is represented by one resolved severity state, not a full hour-by-hour outage schedule.
- Current scope — This page is strongest as a power-stress monitor. Macro transmission signals become decision-grade only when the macro layer is published as live.
- Coverage matters — Confidence depends on how much reviewed label history overlaps with feature history in the published training window.
Trajectory
21-day PSI pulse
Apr 21May 01May 18
Evidence mix
Historical severity distribution
Share of classified days across the current evidence base.
Class 0 • restored / stable supply4 days5%
Class 1 • scheduled partial cuts29 days36%
Class 2 • heavy unscheduled cuts39 days49%
Class 3 • crisis-level outages8 days10%
Latest updates
System activity
Recent pipeline and model events surfaced for transparency.
Kariba hydrology refreshed
Latest ZRA observation is 40.44% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
ZMW/USD observation updated
Mid rate is 18.8739 versus 18.8686 previously.
Latest PSI reading published
PSI 0.65 · Hydrology stress: rising · confidence MEDIUM.
System health degraded
1 of 9 rail degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (8 days behind).